Scientific approach · Time to Truth

Decisions like experiments

The market does not care about founder intuition. We install the radar that RCTs showed separates winners from zombies—and from expensive accidental deaths.

What the controlled trials found

Camuffo, Gambardella and co-authors trained founders to act like scientists: written theories, explicit hypotheses, pre-committed metrics—then tracked them against intuition-led peers.

01

Kill false positives

A 3% conversion is not “early traction” if you said you needed 15%. Science-led teams recognise failure; gut-led teams fund zombies.

02

Pivot one variable

Fewer pivots, but radical and clean. Keep the core vision; change product, segment, or value prop—not everything at once.

03

Fail with cash left

Similar early closure rates (~20%) hide opposite stories: accidental death at €0 vs intentional termination with runway intact—and more shots on goal.

What we install

Maqqa does not sell psychic market prediction. We sell Time-to-Truth: the system that turns a roadmap into falsifiable bets, measures them against wallets and behaviour, and forces Scale, Pivot, or Terminate—before the slow grind to zero.

  • Hypothesis canvases for every material roadmap item
  • Smoke tests that demand paid intent, not vanity sign-ups
  • Usage matrices and churn interviews that isolate one failing variable
  • A decision matrix you can run without us

Asymmetry pitch

If you ship the next initiative by gut, you risk months of build budget on a maladapted idea. Our fee is a fraction of that. If the idea wins, we scale on clean data. If it loses, we kill it early—having spent a test budget, not a funeral budget.

See offer bands →

Sources

We apply the mechanism to SaaS roadmaps; we do not claim affiliation with the authors. Free practice: That’s bollocks — an anti-sycophancy challenger for your next bet.

Ready to stress-test one bet?

Bring the next feature or MVP. Leave with Scale, Pivot, Kill—or the right offer.